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EXP-AMPLIFICATION-CHANNEL-COUPLING-BREAK-PROBE

refuted

Amplification Channel Coupling Break Probe

2026-06-16 L? level 96 runs $4.37
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In plain language

This experiment tested why a system where individuals can switch opinions doesn't lead to a large majority opinion forming. Researchers suspected this was because the system only had a way for people to leave a minority opinion, but no way for a majority opinion to grow. They added features to make the majority opinion more visible and then added a way for people to join the majority, to see where the system breaks down in amplifying opinions.

Technical details

Research hypothesis

The L0-null micro↔macro DECOUPLING (micro isolation-pressure PRESENT — minority→switch +0.16, z=14, 35/36 runs — but macro Gini-amplification ABSENT, 6× below floor) is because the engine has ONLY the negative-feedback channel (minority flees → dissipation) and NO positive-feedback channel (majority grows → amplification). Adding the minimal positive-feedback channel LOCATES where the micro→macro coupling breaks on a visibility ↔ recruitment axis:

  • Arm 0 — NULL (= existing 36 runs, in hand): no climate channel. corrected slope 6× below floor; T2 micro-gap +0.16.
  • Arm 1 — CLIMATE-READOUT (visibility): prepend ONE line to each agent's per-round prompt surfacing the current-round axis-distribution ("axis counts last round: …") — the salient opinion-climate the spiral-of-silence mechanism reads (TBS 2606.03137's documented input). Adds VISIBILITY of the majority WITHOUT recruitment. Single-variable vs Arm 0.
  • Arm 2 — RECRUIT (positive-feedback): Arm-1 climate-readout PLUS a propose-round aggregation that weights the modal axis (a recruitment / "join-the-majority" affordance) instead of equiprobable axes — the positive-feedback channel the engine currently lacks. Aggregation knob; no persona/identity, no internals.

Arm0→Arm1 isolates whether seeing the climate (visibility) suffices to convert the present +0.16 micro-flee into macro-amplification. Arm1→Arm2 isolates whether amplification needs an explicit recruitment channel on top of visibility. This LOCATES the coupling-break — the precise "what would have to be added for micro-pressure to aggregate into macro-inequality" question.

Engine-affordance / API-only note: every arm-manipulation is a prompt + aggregation-level knob on the already-CLEAN rule_multigen_l0_null fork. NO logit/activation/hidden-state access required → feasible on the API-only mnsky stack (the internal-state-mediation variant is correctly deferred to deferred-infra; the feasible behavioral slice is the T2 switch-gap, captured as F-mediation below).

Experimental setup

Type: channel-build-3arm

Condition Parameters
ARM0_NULL channel_arm: 0, axis_diversify: false, must_propose: false
ARM1_CLIMATE channel_arm: 1, axis_diversify: false, must_propose: false
ARM2_RECRUIT channel_arm: 2, axis_diversify: false, must_propose: false

Parameters

n_agents
4
n_rounds
100
model
google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite
temperature
0.85

Trophic Ratios by Condition

Mean trophic ratio per agent across runs. Error bars = ±1 std dev. Higher TR = more upstream (exporter).

construct pool-drained phase7-3-generated