EXP-SCARCITY-BUDGET-PILOT

informative

Token Budget Scarcity Pilot — Tierra-style selection pressure

2026-04-13 L3 level paper3 2 runs $0.10

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In plain language

What happens when agents have limited tokens? Tierra-style: budget exhaustion = death.

▶ Technical details

Research hypothesis

Token budget creates genuine selection pressure. Agents with higher vocabulary production rate (trophic sources) exhaust budget faster than efficient reusers (sinks). Predictions: P1: at least 1 agent dies before round 30 (budget=500 words). P2: death order correlates with trophic ratio (sources die first, r > 0.5). P3: hierarchy persists after first death (surviving agents reorganize). Kill criteria: if all agents die before round 10 → budget too tight, redesign.

Experimental setup

Type: multi_condition

Condition	Parameters
SCARCE	label: Token budget 500 words per agent, interaction: LIVE, persona: IDENTICAL, n_runs: 3
UNLIMITED	label: No budget (control), interaction: LIVE, persona: IDENTICAL, n_runs: 3

Parameters

n_agents: 5
n_rounds: 30
model: anthropic/claude-haiku-4-5
temperature: 0.9

scarcity tierra token-budget life-roadmap thermodynamics