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EXP-MULTIGEN-VARIANCE

… pending

Multi-gen variance characterisation — how canalized is the developmental program (paper6 step 2 char)

2026-05-04 L6 level paper6 10 runs $0.12
new
premortem
mock
real
metrics
analyze
review
krit
done

In plain language

This experiment tested how predictable a biological development process is when starting from different initial conditions. Researchers ran the process multiple times with varied starting points to see if a specific sequence of developmental stages consistently occurred. The results are still being analyzed to determine if the process is highly predictable, moderately predictable, or largely random.

▶ Technical details

Research hypothesis

exp-rule-multigen + exp-multigen-coupling-ablate established that signal_type chain progress→combined→concept is COUPLING-DEPENDENT (mirror falsified). Now characterise: how constrained is this developmental program across diverse initial conditions? Variance test: N=10 runs with diverse seed_sets, coupling=ALL. Three possible outcomes: - HIGH CANALIZATION: chain progress→combined→concept replicates in ≥7/10 runs. Strongly canalized developmental program. Like gastrulation in vertebrates.

  • MODERATE CANALIZATION: chain replicates in 4-6/10. Multiple developmental basins; coupling produces structure but with non-trivial variance.
  • LOW CANALIZATION (noise): no consistent chain. Coupling enables proposals but doesn't channel them. Lost-chain-on-noise rather than retrieval.

Pre-registered: - Operationalise "chain replicates" as: signal_type passes through ≥3 distinct values, including at least one of {combined, concept}.

  • Track per-run: max_depth, n_accepted, signal_type trajectory, voting_threshold trajectory, rules_changed_count.

Experimental setup

Type: factorial

Condition Parameters
VARIANCE_DIVERSE coupling: true, must_propose: true, axis_diversify: true, n_runs: 10

Factors: variance (all_seeds)

Parameters

n_agents
4
model
google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite
temperature
0.85
autopoiesis paper6-step2-char variance canalization