← back to timeline

EXP-MULTIGEN-VARIANCE

pending

Multi-gen variance characterisation — how canalized is the developmental program (paper6 step 2 char)

2026-05-04 L6 level paper6 10 runs $0.12
new
premortem
mock
real
metrics
analyze
review
krit
done

In plain language

This experiment tested how predictable a biological development process is when starting from different initial conditions. Researchers ran the process multiple times with varied starting points to see if a specific sequence of developmental stages consistently occurred. The results are still being analyzed to determine if the process is highly predictable, moderately predictable, or largely random.

Technical details

Research hypothesis

exp-rule-multigen + exp-multigen-coupling-ablate established that signal_type chain progress→combined→concept is COUPLING-DEPENDENT (mirror falsified). Now characterise: how constrained is this developmental program across diverse initial conditions? Variance test: N=10 runs with diverse seed_sets, coupling=ALL. Three possible outcomes: - HIGH CANALIZATION: chain progress→combined→concept replicates in ≥7/10 runs. Strongly canalized developmental program. Like gastrulation in vertebrates.

  • MODERATE CANALIZATION: chain replicates in 4-6/10. Multiple developmental basins; coupling produces structure but with non-trivial variance.
  • LOW CANALIZATION (noise): no consistent chain. Coupling enables proposals but doesn't channel them. Lost-chain-on-noise rather than retrieval.

Pre-registered: - Operationalise "chain replicates" as: signal_type passes through ≥3 distinct values, including at least one of {combined, concept}.

  • Track per-run: max_depth, n_accepted, signal_type trajectory, voting_threshold trajectory, rules_changed_count.

Experimental setup

Type: factorial

Condition Parameters
VARIANCE_DIVERSE coupling: true, must_propose: true, axis_diversify: true, n_runs: 10

Factors: variance (all_seeds)

Parameters

n_agents
4
model
google/gemini-2.5-flash-lite
temperature
0.85
autopoiesis paper6-step2-char variance canalization