Coverage by level
184 experiments across 8 of 8 levels of organization.
Level coverage
Each cell shows the count of confirmed and refuted outcomes out of the total experiments at that level. «gap» means no experiment has been run at that level yet.
L1
2✓ 0✗ /9
L2
2✓ 0✗ /10
L3
7✓ 0✗ /38
L6
9✓ 6✗ /58
All Experiments
| ID | Level | Verdict | Runs | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| exp-l0-null-substrate-by-construction-baseline-port | L0 | … pending | 36 | — |
| exp-particle-null-r0 | L1 | ✓ success | 5 | 0/3 (0%) |
| cvs | L1 | ? informative | 100 | 2/4 (50%) |
| ama | L1 | ? informative | 0 | 1/3 (33%) |
| pws-factorial | L1 | ? negative | 0 | 0/7 (0%) |
| exp-may-sigma | L1 | ✓ success | 1 | 3/4 (75%) |
| exp-seed-sensitivity | L1 | ? artifact | 16 | 0/6 (0%) |
| exp-density-min | L1 | ? artifact | 3 | 0/3 (0%) |
| genealogical-replicator-vs-open-ended-probe | L1 | ◐ partial | 10 | — |
| exp-hard-autocatalytic-core-language-substrate-port | L1 | … pending | 0 | — |
| exp-forget-series | L1.5 | ? informative | 2 | — |
| exp-forget-n5 | L1.5 | ? informative | 3 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-dose-response | L2 | ? informative | 11 | — |
| exp-triad-dose | L2 | ? informative | 8 | — |
| exp-asym-series | L2 | ? informative | 398 | — |
| vocab-specificity | L2 | ? negative | 45 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-opponent | L2 | ? informative | 1 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-dilution-n7 | L2 | ? informative | 4 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-persona-swap | L2 | ? artifact | 4 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-closure | L2 | ✓ success | 3 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-n4-entropy | L2 | ✓ success | 9 | 4/4 (100%) |
| exp-gamma-ablation-n4 | L2 | ? informative | 3 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-topology | L3 | ? informative | 6 | — |
| exp-star-series | L3 | ? informative | 17 | — |
| exp-pent-series | L3 | ? informative | 4 | — |
| exp-engineer-series | L3 | ? informative | 5 | — |
| exp-keystone-series | L3 | ? informative | 108 | — |
| exp-slc | L3 | ✓ success | 3 | 1/3 (33%) |
| exp-aso | L3 | ✓ success | 5 | 3/5 (60%) |
| exp-dyad | L3 | ? informative | 4 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-quad | L3 | ◐ partial | 1 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-quad2 | L3 | ✓ success | 1 | 1/4 (25%) |
| exp-hept | L3 | ◐ partial | 1 | 2/4 (50%) |
| exp-n6 | L3 | ? artifact | 4 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-hysteresis | L3 | ? design killed | 0 | — |
| exp-pent70-r0 | L3 | ? series member | 12 | 0/2 (0%) |
| exp-cycle-n5 | L3 | ? artifact | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-full-n5 | L3 | ? artifact | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-chain-n5 | L3 | ? artifact | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-reg2-n5 | L3 | ? informative | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-reg3-n5 | L3 | ? artifact | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-revord-n5 | L3 | ? informative | 1 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-broadcast | L3 | ✓ success | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-seed-alt | L3 | ? artifact | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-broadcast-pilot | L3 | ? artifact | 1 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-base-model | L3 | ✓ success | 6 | 0/4 (0%) |
| cross-substrate-f0 | L3 | ? partially supported | 0 | 1/3 (33%) |
| assembly-index-pilot | L3 | ◐ partial | 1 | — |
| exp-competency-n5-rot2 | L3 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-balanced-rot | L3 | ? informative | 15 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-n3-balanced-rot | L3 | ? informative | 9 | — |
| exp-star-perturb | L3 | … pending | 0 | — |
| exp-mmp-claude | L3 | ◐ partial | 6 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-mmp-gemini | L3 | ✓ success | 6 | — |
| exp-mmp-gpt4o | L3 | ◐ partial | 6 | — |
| exp-hawthorne-pilot | L3 | ◐ partial | 10 | — |
| exp-scarcity-budget-pilot | L3 | ? informative | 2 | — |
| exp-scarcity-budget-tight | L3 | ✓ success | 6 | — |
| exp-persona-free-scarcity | L3 | ◐ partial | 9 | — |
| exp-scarcity-aware | L3 | ◐ partial | 6 | — |
| exp-self-repair-series | L4 | ? informative | 2 | — |
| exp-homeostasis | L4 | ? refuted | 8 | 5/5 (100%) |
| exp-memory-truncation | L4 | ◐ partial | 3 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-turnover | L4 | ◐ partial | 6 | 0/6 (0%) |
| exp-vai-computation | L4 | ? informative | 1 | 3/3 (100%) |
| exp-backward-flow | L4 | ? informative | 2 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-kauffman-comp | L4 | ? informative | 2 | 0/5 (0%) |
| exp-teleodynamic-pilot | L4 | ◐ partial | 2 | 3/4 (75%) |
| exp-competency-rotation | L4 | ? informative | 4 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-axis-diversify-false-ablation-arm | L4 | ◐ partial | 16 | — |
| exp-community-merge | L5 | ? informative | 4 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-competition-pilot | L5 | ? artifact | 0 | — |
| exp-cp-compete | L5 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-cp-cooperate | L5 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-cp-isolated-a | L5 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-cp-isolated-b | L5 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-cp-phase-a | L5 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-cp-phase-b | L5 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-ivb-neutral | L5 | ? informative | 1 | 0/3 (0%) |
| exp-ivb-rep-1 | L5 | ? informative | 3 | 0/2 (0%) |
| exp-ivb-compete-strip-r1 | L5 | ? informative | 3 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-ivb-cooperate-strip-r1 | L5 | ? informative | 3 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-ivb-neutral-strip-r1 | L5 | ? informative | 3 | 0/4 (0%) |
| exp-absorption-diagnostic | L5 | … pending | 15 | — |
| exp-deacon-coupled | L5 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-persona-ablation | L5 | … pending | 5 | — |
| exp-memory-swap | L5 | … pending | 5 | — |
| exp-compute-gift | L5 | … pending | 15 | — |
| exp-compute-gift-v2 | L5 | … pending | 15 | — |
| exp-compute-gift-v3 | L5 | … pending | 15 | — |
| exp-cold-start-v3 | L5 | … pending | 5 | — |
| exp-nonsocial-affordance | L5 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-turn-passing | L5 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-turn-passing-v2 | L5 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-cr-g1-ctrl | L6 | ✗ failed | 1 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-cr-g1-inh | L6 | ✗ failed | 1 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-cr-g2-ctrl | L6 | ✗ failed | 1 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-cr-g2-inh | L6 | ✗ failed | 1 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-cr-g3-ctrl | L6 | ✗ failed | 1 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-cr-g3-inh | L6 | ✗ failed | 1 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-cultural-ratchet | L6 | ? informative | 1 | — |
| exp-ratchet-null-shuffled | L6 | ? artifact | 0 | — |
| exp-ratchet-null-single | L6 | ? artifact | 0 | — |
| exp-rns-g0 | L6 | ? informative | 4 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-rnsh-g2 | L6 | ? informative | 2 | 0/1 (0%) |
| exp-qsg-neutral | L6 | ✓ success | 5 | 0/3 (0%) |
| exp-convention-genome-g0 | L6 | ? informative | 9 | — |
| exp-prompt-evolution-g1 | L6 | ◐ partial | 6 | — |
| exp-ca-evo-pilot | L6 | … pending | 1 | — |
| exp-evo-loop-embedding | L6 | … pending | 1 | — |
| exp-evo-loop-full | L6 | … pending | 9 | — |
| exp-levin-pilot | L6 | … pending | 3 | — |
| exp-coupling-null-model | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-evo-loop-pilot | L6 | … pending | 2 | — |
| exp-hard-rails-pilot | L6 | … pending | 4 | — |
| exp-hard-rails-v2 | L6 | … pending | 4 | — |
| exp-levin-full | L6 | … pending | 9 | — |
| exp-levin-hotswap | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-levin-recall | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-role-framing-asymmetry | L6 | … pending | 4 | — |
| exp-rule-proposal-pilot | L6 | … pending | 2 | — |
| exp-target-stability-injection | L6 | … pending | 4 | — |
| exp-ca-rule-multigen-poc | L6 | … pending | 2 | — |
| exp-rule-multigen | L6 | … pending | 2 | — |
| exp-rule-proposal-v2 | L6 | … pending | 2 | — |
| exp-multigen-coupling-ablate | L6 | … pending | 2 | — |
| exp-multigen-variance | L6 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-ca-rule-multigen-variance | L6 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-ca-rule-multigen-5gen | L6 | … pending | 4 | — |
| exp-ca-rule-multigen-axis-control | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-multigen-coupling-ablate-n10 | L6 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-mute-coupling | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-meta-modifiable | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-scarcity-budget | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-perturbation-recovery | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-scarcity-tight | L6 | ✓ success | 6 | — |
| exp-perturbation-recovery-n10 | L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-perturbation-recovery-mute-n10 | L6 | ◐ partial | 30 | — |
| exp-agent-spawn-primitive | L6 | ? informative | 6 | — |
| exp-persona-novelty-basin | L6 | … pending | 30 | — |
| exp-persona-novelty-disentangle | L6 | … pending | 32 | — |
| exp-forced-spawn-novelty | L6 | ◐ partial | 36 | — |
| exp-coalition-as-rule-proposer | L6 | … pending | 12 | — |
| exp-persistence-under-pressure | L6 | ✓ success | 20 | — |
| exp-target-type-cross-context | L6 | ✓ success | 80 | — |
| exp-pure-llm-licensing-ceiling | L6 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-prompt-mechanism-factorial | L6 | ✓ success | 40 | — |
| exp-cross-model-concept-novelty-portability | L6 | ✓ success | 40 | — |
| exp-qwen-NS-LIC-extended | L6 | ✓ success | 15 | — |
| exp-persona-noun-seed-grid | L6 | ? informative | 64 | — |
| exp-architecture-as-substrate-axis | L6 | ✓ success | 20 | — |
| keyorder-audit-rule-proposal | L6 | ✓ success | 8 | — |
| exp-developmental-traversal | L0-L6 | … pending | 63 | — |
| exp-dt-bootstrap | L0-L6 | … pending | 10 | — |
| exp-self-maintenance | L5-L6 | … pending | 15 | — |
| exp-ca-coupling-forced | L5-L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-ca-coupling-poc | L5-L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-ca-coupling-stake | L5-L6 | … pending | 6 | — |
| exp-acdc-mini | L5-L6 | … pending | 3 | — |
| exp-paper9-phase2-rerun-trace | L8 | … pending | 20 | — |
| exp-paper9-cross-engine-validation | L8 | … pending | 20 | — |
| exp-autocatalytic-core-explicit-catalysis | L4-L6 | ◐ partial | 0 | — |
| exp-substrate-degradation-pathway-taxonomy | L3-L5 | ◐ partial | 0 | — |
| exp-persona-vector-activation-substrate | L5-L6 | ◐ partial | 0 | — |
| eos-suppression-substrate-probe | L7 | ◐ partial | 12 | — |
| eos-suppression-multi-agent | L7 | ◐ partial | 6 | — |
| closed-substrate-novelty-probe | L7 | ✓ success | 3 | — |
| differentiation-without-injection | L7 | ? negative | 4 | — |
| cognitive-cycle-3agents-pilot | L7 | ? negative | 4 | — |
| cognitive-cycle-3agents-pilot-v2 | L7 | ? artifact | 4 | — |
| friston-minimal-pilot | L7 | ? negative | 2 | — |
| cognitive-cycle-3agents-pilot-v3-partial-obs | L7 | ◐ partial | 4 | — |
| cognitive-cycle-3agents-pilot-v4-persona-roles | L7 | ? refuted | 4 | — |
| cog-cycle-v5-N5-noise-floor | L7 | ◐ partial | 20 | — |
| exp-class-A-vs-B-regime-engagement-gate-cross-experiment-retro | L4-L6 | ◐ partial | 0 | — |
| exp-cross-paper-regime-collapse-synth | L4-L6 | … pending | 0 | — |
| exp-cross-substrate-single-entity-dominance-probe | L4-L5 | … pending | 0 | — |
| closed-substrate-novelty-N5 | L7 | ◐ partial | 15 | — |
| exp-engine-confound-systematic-audit | L3-L4 | ? verdict.CONFIRMED-P4-engine-source-confound-is-category-15-sites-11-engines | 0 | — |
| exp-pid-tdmi-layer-empirical-port | L3-L4 | … pending | 0 | — |
| exp-multimodal-channel-image-vote | L0-L6 | … pending | 0 | — |
| exp-coupling-strength-inverted-U-substrate-axis | L4-L5 | ? verdict.REFUTED-NOISE-FLOOR-broadcast_to-no-substrate-corrected-inverted-U-DV-ceiling-locked-coupling_strength-INFEASIBLE-AS-SPECIFIED | 80 | — |
| exp-pre-decision-activation-precursor-layer | L4-L5 | … pending | 0 | — |
| exp-amplification-channel-coupling-break-probe | L? | ? refuted | 96 | — |
Cross-Experiment Insights
▸ Positive evidence at L1, L2, L3, L6. 4/8 levels have at least one success.
▸ Failure rate: 6/184 (3%). Failures are data — they map what the substrate doesn't afford.
▸ Cross-experiment prediction accuracy: 29/224 (13%). Pre-registration works — we're wrong often enough to be learning.
184
experiments
21
confirmed
14
refuted
13%
prediction accuracy